Certification of Real Images through Calibrated Content Authentication

Summary

Researchers evaluated twenty deepfake detectors against ten generators released over four years and found accuracy dropping from 99.5% to 76%, with adversarial perturbations pushing every baseline below 2%. They propose a detector that outputs a calibrated prediction of whether authenticity is plausibly deniable, based on whether a known generator can faithfully reconstruct the content. At a 1% false-certification bound, most baseline detectors reach near-zero recall, and 1,116 of 3,000 Reddit images resisted reproduction by a 2022 generator versus 55 to 79 for 2024 generators.

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