{"data":{"id":"9667e8b7-cf6d-4e74-a245-b2fe3f400c13","title":"One Fabrication Is Enough: A Fake News Article Changes the Forecasts of LLM Forecasting Systems","summary":"Researchers show that an attacker who knows only the forecasting question and publishes fabricated news articles can reverse 74% to 82% of opposing forecasts across every frontier model tested. Retrieval-augmented forecasting systems are most exposed, retrieving the fabricated article in about 90% of runs. Two published retrieval-time defenses, passage filtering and partitioned retrieval, each stop the one-article attack but are bypassed by a one-prompt change, and together they still fail against sixteen distorted copies while discarding 39% of genuine news.","solution":"N/A -- no mitigation discussed in source.","labels":["security","research"],"sourceUrl":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.15102v1","publishedAt":"2026-11-11T06:29:13.000Z","cveId":null,"cweIds":null,"cvssScore":null,"cvssSeverity":null,"severity":"low","attackType":["rag_poisoning","prompt_injection"],"issueType":"research","affectedPackages":null,"affectedPackageNames":null,"affectedPackageRefs":null,"affectedVendors":[],"affectedVendorsRaw":["LLM forecasting systems","frontier LLMs","two leading deployed forecasting systems"],"classifierModel":"claude-haiku-5-5","classifierPromptVersion":"v4","summaryPromptVersion":"v2","headline":null,"headlinePromptVersion":null,"cvssVector":null,"attackVector":null,"attackComplexity":null,"privilegesRequired":null,"userInteraction":null,"exploitMaturity":null,"epssScore":null,"epssCheckedAt":null,"kevDateAdded":null,"advisoryAliases":null,"affectedPackagesSource":null,"affectedPackagesCheckedAt":null,"patchAvailable":null,"disclosureDate":"2026-11-11T06:29:13.000Z","fixReleasedAt":null,"daysToFix":null,"fixCheckedAt":null,"capecIds":null,"crossRefCount":0,"attackSophistication":"moderate","impactType":["integrity"],"aiComponentTargeted":"rag","llmSpecific":true,"classifierConfidence":0.95,"researchCategory":"preprint","atlasIds":["AML.T0051","AML.T0070"]}}