{"data":{"id":"8cbc2719-0c0b-4f54-8e51-163d234b48fd","title":"Prevalence Bounds for Edited Watermarked Text: Power Envelopes and Calibration Sensitivity","summary":"This paper estimates the share of a document corpus produced by a watermarked language model, not just whether one document is watermarked, for Gumbel-max and green-list (KGW) watermarks under unknown edits. It derives a power envelope over retention, entropy and in-place substitution budgets, giving finite-sample bounds on the share. On OPT-1.3B and Qwen3-1.7B text, the exact-null bound at a share of 0.2 is about [0.14,0.38], and the bounds are fragile to LLM paraphrasing and to small null-calibration errors at large corpus sizes.","solution":"N/A -- no mitigation discussed in source.","labels":["research","security"],"sourceUrl":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.17035v1","publishedAt":"2026-11-12T16:21:31.000Z","cveId":null,"cweIds":null,"cvssScore":null,"cvssSeverity":null,"severity":"info","attackType":[],"issueType":"research","affectedPackages":null,"affectedPackageNames":null,"affectedPackageRefs":null,"affectedVendors":[],"affectedVendorsRaw":["OPT-1.3B","Qwen3-1.7B"],"classifierModel":"claude-haiku-5-5","classifierPromptVersion":"v4","summaryPromptVersion":"v2","headline":null,"headlinePromptVersion":null,"cvssVector":null,"attackVector":null,"attackComplexity":null,"privilegesRequired":null,"userInteraction":null,"exploitMaturity":null,"epssScore":null,"epssCheckedAt":null,"kevDateAdded":null,"advisoryAliases":null,"affectedPackagesSource":null,"affectedPackagesCheckedAt":null,"patchAvailable":null,"disclosureDate":"2026-11-12T16:21:31.000Z","fixReleasedAt":null,"daysToFix":null,"fixCheckedAt":null,"capecIds":null,"crossRefCount":0,"attackSophistication":"advanced","impactType":["integrity"],"aiComponentTargeted":"model","llmSpecific":true,"classifierConfidence":0.93,"researchCategory":"preprint","atlasIds":null}}